Expected Value is the amount of money that we expect to get back, on average, when we complete an offer. If an offer has a positive expected value (+EV) then we have a mathematical edge and would expect to profit on average. If an offer has negative expected value (-EV), as many are, then we would be costing ourselves money by doing them, so it is really important to know, before starting any offer, whether it is +EV.
‘Before starting any offer, it is really important to know whether it is +EV’
Team Casino will always calculate the EV of an offer before posting it, and will only post +EV offers, but what about offers that you are emailed, or find elsewhere online? This guide is designed to help you consider whether they would be worth doing.
Whilst Team Casino has an EV calculator to work out the EV for you, you may be curious as to the formula behind it.
Expected Value = Expected Loss Fom Wagering + Expected Profit From Reward (free spins or bonus)
So if the expected profit from the reward is greater than loss that we expect from the wagering, then an offer is +EV!
How To Calculate Expected Loss From Wagering?
Our expected loss can be calculated as follows:
Expected Loss = Wagering Required x (RTP – 1)
For example, if you are wagering £10 on a 96% slot, the expected loss is £10 x (0.96 – 1) = 40p.
How To Calculate Expected Profit From Reward?
The value of our reward depends on the terms of the offer:
- Cash Reward
If the reward for the promotion is cash, then the reward value is simply the cash amount.
Expected Reward = Cash amount
- Free Spins
If the reward is free spins, then the reward value will be as follows:
Expected Reward = Number Of Free Spins x Free Spin Value x (RTP% of slot used)
For example, if we receive 10 free spins at 20p/spin on a 96% slot, this is 10 x 20p x 0.96 = £1.92.
If there is 1x wagering on the free spin winnings, then we mulitply our Expected Reward by the RTP of the slot we need to wager on.
Continuing the above example, if we needed to wager our winnings once on the same slot, this would be £1.92 x 0.96 = £1.84.
- Bonus (1x wagering)
If the reward is a bonus with 1x wagering, then the casino bonus value would be:
Expected Reward = Bonus Amount x RTP% of game used
For example, let’s say a casino is offering a promotion: Wager £20 on slot x for 20 free spins (£0.20 free spin value) on the same slot.
First we check the RTP of the slot – in this case 97% (0.97).
Expected Loss From Wagering = 20 * (0.97-1) = -0.60
Expected Profit From Reward = 0.2 x 20 x 0.97 = 3.88
Expected Value = £3.88 – £0.60 = £3.28
Based on this calculation, we know that on average, we expect to make £3.28 profit from this offer, and so it is probably worth doing.
If the offer that you are considering has wagering requirements, then the way to calculate EV with reasonable accuracy is to use a simulator tool. This is an advanced tool, which Team Casino is currently working on adding, updates to follow. In the meantime, you can always contact us, either via Live Chat, Email or the Facebook Group, and we’ll be happy to assist you with any wagering offers!
If you are considering doing an offer where you will receive a bonus which has wagering, please see our bonus wagering guide for information on expected value and also how to decide spin sizing and slot choice.
Deposit and Bonus Tied Together
Team Casino generally recommends avoiding offers where your deposit and a bonus are tied together, with a large wagering requirement, because these are usually high risk offers with a high chance that you will lose your deposit. Please check out our high risk offers warning post here.
If you are unsure on whether to do an offer, either where you have to wager a specified amount to then receive free spins or a bonus, with wagering requirements, or where your deposit and bonus are tied together, please post details of the offer in the Facebook Group and we can assist you.
A crucial part of calculating the EV is understanding and finding the RTP. RTP is the average amount of money that we expect to get back when we play any casino game. The RTP of any casino game will always be less than 100%. What this means is that whenever we play a casino game, we expect to receive back less money than we put in. This ensures that the casino has an advantage, and will always make money in the long run. For example, if a casino game has a 97% RTP, we would expect to receive back £97 for every £100 that we wager on that game. The casino expects to make £3 profit for every £100 that we play, giving them a 3% house edge.
In order to maximise the EV, we should always try to use the highest RTP game that is available for the offer. The RTP of different casino games is as follows:
An important consideration when calculating the EV of an offer that involves free spins, is how much those free spins are worth. A free spin could be worth anywhere from 5p-50p, maybe even £1, and so this is obviously going to have a massive impact on the EV of an offer. An offer might be -EV if the free spins are worth 10p each, but +EV if they are worth 20p each, so it is important that we check this carefully when we are considering an offer.
If we have a choice of slots for an offer, it is possible that we can significantly increase our EV by finding the slot which has the highest free spin value, as they may not all be the same.
If you are considering a free spins offer, then the first thing to do is to check the terms and conditions of the offer, as this should normally state how much any free spins would be worth. If it isn’t specified, then we should assume that the free spin value is the smallest spin size that is allowed on the slot. So we can open a slot/s and set it to the smallest spin size allowed (usually 10p, 20p or 25p) and we can assume that this would be our free spin value.
The Team Casino EV Calculator
Our EV calculator will work out the EV of an offer by 3 of the most common offer types:
Wagering To Get Free Spins
Wagering To Get a Bonus
Free Spins no deposit/wager required
These are explained below, in a bit more detail, with examples.
Wagering To Get Free Spins
Your fairly typical low risk casino offer, where you are required to wager a certain amount of your own money, in order to receive a specified number of free spins. Let’s take the daily Sky Casino offer of Stake £10 to get 5 spins as an example:
1. Make sure the Offer Type is set to “Wagering/Free Spins”:
2. Fill out the information required based on the offer you have been given. If you have been given a selection of slots that must be used on the offer you can check the RTP using Team Casinos Slot Finder or Slot Catalog to find the best option. Add in the information requested in the boxes provided. The offer should always state the vital information in the offer itself or the terms.
In this case, we are wagering £10 on a slot with 97% RTP, to get 5 free spins, worth 25p each, on a slot with 96.14% RTP, and there are no wagering requirements on the free spin winnings, so we would enter:
3. Once you are happy you have added the correct information just press the big blue calculate button you see the EV of the offer!
Wagering To Get a Bonus
Here we are referring to any offer where we are required to wager a certain amount of our own money to receive a bonus, that is either credited as cash, or with 1x wagering. For any bonuses with more than 1x wagering, please see the above section: “Offers With Wagering”.
Lets take a typical Betfair Arcade reload offer of Stake £5 get a £1 bonus as our example.
1. Ensure that you have selected “Wagering/Bonus” in the offer type box:
2. Fill out the information required based on what it stated in the offer/ terms of conditions like so.
In this example we are wagering £5 on a slot with 93.06% RTP to get a £1 bonus, with 1x wagering on the same game, so we would enter:
3. Press the calculate button to give the EV of the chosen offer!
Note: If you receive an offer where the reward is paid as cash, with no wagering requirements, then you can input the bonus RTP as 100%.
This scenario is for any times where a casino might send you free spins to use on a slot, which carry no wagering requirements… very kind of them!
In this example, we are going to imagine that we receive 10 free spins to use on the slot Twin Spin Deluxe. This slot has a 96.61% RTP, and a 10p spin value.
1. Select “Free Spins” as the offer type:
2. Fill out the information required in the boxes given:
3. Press Calculate to get the EV:
On all 3 calculators there is a little ? next to each box which then explains what you need to input just in case you are still unsure!